MLB Pipeline’s latest 2021 mock draft has Red Sox selecting Louisville catcher Henry Davis with top pick

In his latest mock draft for MLB Pipeline, MLB.com’s Jim Callis has the Red Sox selecting University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 first-year player draft, which begins in just over six weeks.

Prior to projecting prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer to go to the Pirates at No. 1, Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter to fall to the Rangers at No. 2, and high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar to go to the Tigers at No. 3, Callis did note that “who will go where in the first round remains quite fluid” as “there aren’t 29 consensus first-round talents for 29 first-round picks.”

The Red Sox will be making a top-five pick in this summer’s draft for just the third time in franchise history and for the first time since 1967, when they selected right-hander Mike Garman third overall.

When it came time for the Sox to make their first selection in this latest mock draft, Callis had them take the first catcher off the board in Davis as opposed to someone like Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker or Winder-Barrow High School’s Brady House.

“The Red Sox feel like the absolute floor for Leiter, who probably won’t get to them,” Callis wrote on Wednesday. “Davis is the best college position player available, the high school shortstops also would be attractive and there are rumblings Boston could cut a deal with a lesser college bat to save money to spend big later.”

Davis, 21, is currently regarded by Baseball America as the fifth-ranked prospect in this year’s draft class, which is tops among both catchers and college position players.

While Louisville was eliminated from the ACC tournament on Thursday, Davis’ 2021 season with the Cardinals has been nothing to scoff at.

Coming into play on Thursday, the third-year sophomore was slashing an absurd .367/.484/.655 to go along with 14 home runs, 46 RBI, 10 stolen bases, 31 walks, and 23 strikeouts over 46 games played and 221 plate appearances. He also threw out 13 of the 28 baserunners who have attempted to steal against him.

Davis, who spent the summer of 2019 playing for the Bourne Braves of the Cape Cod Baseball League, is listed at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds. The right-handed hitter’s Baseball America scouting report goes as follows:

“Davis was one of the hardest-throwing catchers in the 2018 draft class as a high schooler, with a 70-grade cannon for an arm, but questions about his offensive game allowed him to make it to campus at Louisville. He acquitted himself well as a freshman, hitting .280/.345/.386 with 13 walks and 18 strikeouts and was off to an even better start in 2020. Through 14 games Davis hit as many home runs (three) as he did through 45 games during his freshman season. If scouts continue to feel comfortable with Davis’ bat during the 2021 season he could find himself going on the first day of the draft, as he controls the zone well, brings some pop to the pull-side and has gotten more fluid in his actions at the plate.

“Defensively, Davis’ arm jumps off the page, and he’s an athletic and efficient thrower, though he struggled with his blocking initially. Davis had seven passed balls in 2019 and six in 2020, though coaches praise his work ethic and believe he’s improved in that area of his game. MLB teams love athletic collegiate catchers with a track record of hitting and as a .303/.381/.463 career hitter with one explosive tool in his arm strength, he’ll get plenty of attention [this] spring.”

A native of Bedford, N.Y. and a product of Fox Lane High School, Davis spent part of this past offseason catching bullpens for Red Sox relievers Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. Barnes, who hails from Connecticut, recently told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that the young backstop “has an absolute cannon.”

The Red Sox taking Davis with their top pick come July 11 would be somewhat of a rare occurrence considering the fact that the club has selected just four catchers — with Blake Swihart being the latest — in the first round of the amateur draft since its inception in 1965.

Whoever Boston selects at No. 4 this summer, one thing is for certain: the fourth overall choice comes with a recommended value of $6.664 million. Put another way, the Sox could spend up to that dollar figure to sign whoever they take there.

That being said, there remains a possibility that the Red Sox could — as Callis put it — “cut a deal with a lesser college bat to save money to spend big later.”

The very same thing happened last June when Boston selected prep infielder Nick Yorke in the first round and later signed him to a below-slot deal. This allowed the club to invest more in third-round pick Blaze Jordan, another high schooler, and sign him to an above-slot deal.

(Picture of Henry Davis: Louisville Athletics)

Could Red Sox take enticing catching prospect Henry Davis with No. 4 pick in 2021 MLB Draft?

The 2021 MLB first-year player draft is set to begin in just under three months. In case you haven’t heard, the Red Sox will be making their top selection in the draft with the fourth overall pick after finishing with the fourth-worst record in baseball last season.

In his latest 2021 draft prospect rankings, The Athletic’s Keith Law listed University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis as his No. 4 draft-eligible prospect.

“Davis has mashed all year, with huge power and a patient eye, and he’s got a plus arm and enough receiving skills to stay behind the plate,” Law wrote earlier Thursday. “Joey Bart went second overall with less bat and more glove; I don’t think it’s a stretch to think Davis could be the first college position player taken.”

Davis, 21, is listed at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds. Through the Cardinals’ first 30 games of the season, the third-year sophomore is slashing an impressive .389/.514/.676 with eight home runs, 32 RBI, and an ACC-leading nine stolen bases. He has also thrown out 11 of the 20 baserunners who have attempted to steal against him.

In the history of the first-year player draft — which dates back to 1965 — the Red Sox have taken a catcher in the first round on just four separate occasions, most recently selecting Blake Swihart out of Cleveland High School (Rio Rancho, NM) with the 26th overall pick (compensation pick from the Rangers for Adrian Beltre) in 2011.

The last catcher who played his college baseball at Louisville to be selected in the first round of an amateur draft was the Dodgers’ Will Smith, whom Los Angeles took with the 32nd overall pick in 2016.

Since then, Smith has risen through the prospect ranks and has emerged as one of the top young catchers in the National League, if not all of baseball.

Coming into play on Thursday, the 26-year-old is slashing .261/.438/.652 with two home runs and four RBI through his first eight games of the 2021 campaign.

This is not to say that Davis should be compared to Smith at the moment. Both backstops may be right-handed hitters who attended the same school, but one is already establishing himself as an everyday big-leaguer while the other has yet to go pro.

That said, it is worth mentioning that the last University of Louisville catcher to be selected in the first round of the draft turned out to be someone with plenty of potential in the form of Smith.

As for how Davis — a native of Bedford, N.Y. who played for the Cape League’s Bourne Braves in 2019 — is viewed in the eyes of scouts, his MLB Pipeline scouting report goes as follows:

“Davis’ standout tool is his plus-plus arm strength, and he erased 34 percent of basestealers in his first two college seasons while also displaying quick footwork and good throwing accuracy. His receiving still needs a lot of work because it lacks consistency and he sometimes struggles to handle quality stuff, as evidenced by six passed balls in just 13 starts last spring. Though he has below-average speed and conceivably could try an outfield corner, his value comes from staying behind the plate, so he’ll have to improve. 

“While he doesn’t have a pretty right-handed swing, Davis makes it work at the plate and has a higher offensive ceiling than most catchers. He manages the strike zone well and makes repeated hard contact, even if his stroke lengthens and he gets a bit pull-happy at times. His strength and controlled aggression could produce 20 homers per season.”

Whoever the Red Sox take — whether it be Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, or someone else — with their top selection in this summer’s draft, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, amateur scouting director Paul Toboni and Co. will have approximately $6.64 million in recommended slot value to spend on the No. 4 pick.

On a somewhat related note, The Baseball Prospect Journal’s Dan Zielinski III wrote back in January that during the offseason, Davis caught bullpens for Red Sox relievers Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino.

(Picture of Henry Davis: Louisville Athletics)

Potential Red Sox Draft Targets: University of Louisville Right-Hander Bobby Miller

In his latest 2020 mock draft for The Athletic, Keith Law has the Red Sox taking University of Louisville right-hander Bobby Miller with their top pick at No. 17 overall.

Law writes the following of Miller:

Miller has been up to 98 mph as a starter with an above-average slider, showing some effort in the delivery but missing plenty of bats for the Cardinals, with mid-rotation or closer potential.

Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 26 overall draft-eligible prospect and seventh among right-handed hurlers out of college, Miller posted a 2.31 ERA and .181 batting average against over four starts and 23 1/3 innings pitched for the Cardinals this season before the COVID-19 pandemic halted collegiate athletics across the country.

Listed at 6’5″ and 220 lbs., the 21-year-old junior was a 38th round selection of the Baltimore Orioles three years ago, but he opted to honor his commitment to Louisville rather than sign with the club out of high school

Per his MLB Pipeline scouting report, the Illinois native’s “fastball is notable for both its heat — he sat at 95-96 mph throughout his dominance of East Carolina and worked at 97-99 in shorter stints in the fall — and its heavy life. He also can miss bats with a slider/cutter that usually operates at 85-87 and reached 90 during the fall. He has faith in a splitter/changeup with similar velocity and employs a more traditional change in the low 80s.”

One thing to watch with Miller though, as Law mentions, is his delivery, which “limits his control and has some scouts wondering if he’s destined to be a reliever in the long run.”

In the months leading up to the 2020 draft, which is now just under two weeks away, the Red Sox have been linked to a handful of college pitchers, but according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis, Boston seems more likely to take a prep prospect like Mick Abel, Jared Kelley, Nick Bitsko, Ed Howard, or Pete-Crow Armstrong if one of them is still on the board at No. 17.

With chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and amateur scouting director Paul Toboni leading the charge, the Sox will be limited to just four picks in this year’s five-round draft, the shortest in MLB’s history, and will have a grand total of $5,129,200 in slot money to spend on whichever four prospects they select from June 10 through the 11th.