MLB Pipeline’s latest 2021 mock draft has Red Sox selecting Louisville catcher Henry Davis with top pick

In his latest mock draft for MLB Pipeline, MLB.com’s Jim Callis has the Red Sox selecting University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 first-year player draft, which begins in just over six weeks.

Prior to projecting prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer to go to the Pirates at No. 1, Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter to fall to the Rangers at No. 2, and high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar to go to the Tigers at No. 3, Callis did note that “who will go where in the first round remains quite fluid” as “there aren’t 29 consensus first-round talents for 29 first-round picks.”

The Red Sox will be making a top-five pick in this summer’s draft for just the third time in franchise history and for the first time since 1967, when they selected right-hander Mike Garman third overall.

When it came time for the Sox to make their first selection in this latest mock draft, Callis had them take the first catcher off the board in Davis as opposed to someone like Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker or Winder-Barrow High School’s Brady House.

“The Red Sox feel like the absolute floor for Leiter, who probably won’t get to them,” Callis wrote on Wednesday. “Davis is the best college position player available, the high school shortstops also would be attractive and there are rumblings Boston could cut a deal with a lesser college bat to save money to spend big later.”

Davis, 21, is currently regarded by Baseball America as the fifth-ranked prospect in this year’s draft class, which is tops among both catchers and college position players.

While Louisville was eliminated from the ACC tournament on Thursday, Davis’ 2021 season with the Cardinals has been nothing to scoff at.

Coming into play on Thursday, the third-year sophomore was slashing an absurd .367/.484/.655 to go along with 14 home runs, 46 RBI, 10 stolen bases, 31 walks, and 23 strikeouts over 46 games played and 221 plate appearances. He also threw out 13 of the 28 baserunners who have attempted to steal against him.

Davis, who spent the summer of 2019 playing for the Bourne Braves of the Cape Cod Baseball League, is listed at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds. The right-handed hitter’s Baseball America scouting report goes as follows:

“Davis was one of the hardest-throwing catchers in the 2018 draft class as a high schooler, with a 70-grade cannon for an arm, but questions about his offensive game allowed him to make it to campus at Louisville. He acquitted himself well as a freshman, hitting .280/.345/.386 with 13 walks and 18 strikeouts and was off to an even better start in 2020. Through 14 games Davis hit as many home runs (three) as he did through 45 games during his freshman season. If scouts continue to feel comfortable with Davis’ bat during the 2021 season he could find himself going on the first day of the draft, as he controls the zone well, brings some pop to the pull-side and has gotten more fluid in his actions at the plate.

“Defensively, Davis’ arm jumps off the page, and he’s an athletic and efficient thrower, though he struggled with his blocking initially. Davis had seven passed balls in 2019 and six in 2020, though coaches praise his work ethic and believe he’s improved in that area of his game. MLB teams love athletic collegiate catchers with a track record of hitting and as a .303/.381/.463 career hitter with one explosive tool in his arm strength, he’ll get plenty of attention [this] spring.”

A native of Bedford, N.Y. and a product of Fox Lane High School, Davis spent part of this past offseason catching bullpens for Red Sox relievers Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. Barnes, who hails from Connecticut, recently told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that the young backstop “has an absolute cannon.”

The Red Sox taking Davis with their top pick come July 11 would be somewhat of a rare occurrence considering the fact that the club has selected just four catchers — with Blake Swihart being the latest — in the first round of the amateur draft since its inception in 1965.

Whoever Boston selects at No. 4 this summer, one thing is for certain: the fourth overall choice comes with a recommended value of $6.664 million. Put another way, the Sox could spend up to that dollar figure to sign whoever they take there.

That being said, there remains a possibility that the Red Sox could — as Callis put it — “cut a deal with a lesser college bat to save money to spend big later.”

The very same thing happened last June when Boston selected prep infielder Nick Yorke in the first round and later signed him to a below-slot deal. This allowed the club to invest more in third-round pick Blaze Jordan, another high schooler, and sign him to an above-slot deal.

(Picture of Henry Davis: Louisville Athletics)

Brady to Boston? MLB Pipeline’s latest 2021 mock draft has Red Sox selecting prep shortstop Brady House with No. 4 overall pick

In his latest mock draft for MLB Pipeline, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has the Red Sox selecting Winder-Barrow High School (Ga.) shortstop Brady House with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 first-year player draft, which begins in just over seven weeks.

With shortstops Marcelo Mayer — who has been linked to the Red Sox in past mocks — and Jordan Lawlar going to the Pirates and Rangers at picks No. 1 and 2 and Louisville catcher Henry Davis going to the Tigers at No. 3, Mayo decided against having the Sox select either one of Vanderbilt right-handers Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker and instead had them take another high school infielder in House.

“He might be able to stick at shortstop and even if he can’t, adjustments he’s made at the plate have allowed him to show off his immense raw power more consistently,” Mayo wrote of the young shortstop on Wednesday.

In an earlier mock draft from late April, Mayo projected Boston to take Mayer at No. 4, while House fell to the Orioles at No. 5. But he also noted then that House “had entered last summer as the front-runner top pick, had an up-and-down showing, but righted the ship this spring, with his name starting to pop up at least as high as right above this pick.”

Though this is just pure speculation, it would appear that there is now more evidence connecting the Red Sox to House given how Mayo changed things up in his latest mock.

House, who turns 18 next month, is currently regarded by Baseball America as the sixth-ranked prospect in this summer’s draft class, which is six spots higher than he was at this point in April.

While his high school career came to a close earlier this month, the Georgia native finished his senior season by compiling a .549/.675/.967 slash line to go along with eight home runs, 20 RBI, and 21 stolen bases over 31 games played for the Bulldoggs, per MaxPreps.

At the moment, House is committed to play college baseball at the University of Tennessee, though it seems unlikely he would go the college route if he is indeed selected in the early stages of the first round.

Listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, the right-handed hitter’s MLB Pipeline scouting report goes as follows:

“At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds with plenty of strength and bat speed, House looks the part of a power hitter and has well-above-average raw pop to all fields. But after showing the ability to crush good velocity and handle quality breaking balls in past years on the showcase circuit, he got excessively aggressive and his right-handed stroke got longer and slower. Since learning what happens when he sells out for home runs, he has made adjustments, shortened his swing and gotten back to doing damage. 

“An average runner, House likely will move to third base in pro ball but may be athletic enough to stay at shortstop. The Tennessee recruit should be at least a solid defender at the hot corner and possesses a plus arm that can pump fastballs up to 96 mph off the mound. Scouts compare him to a more athletic version of Joey Gallo or 2018 Cardinals first-rounder Nolan Gorman.”

The assigned slot value for the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft is approximately $6.664 million, the same as it was in 2020.

Put another way, the Red Sox will have $6.664 million to spend in regards to signing whoever they take at No. 4 without incurring any sort of penalty.

(Picture of Brady House: Doug Bower)

Could Red Sox take overpowering pitching prospect Kumar Rocker with No. 4 pick in 2021 MLB Draft?

It wasn’t too long ago that it seemed like the Red Sox landing Kumar Rocker with the fourth overall pick in this summer’s draft was a pipe dream at best.

The Vanderbilt University right-hander came into the 2021 season regarded by many as the consensus top amateur prospect ahead of the July draft and was projected to go to the Pirates at No. 1 overall.

Since Vanderbilt’s season began in late February, Rocker has seen his stock fall to some degree, while his fellow rotation mate, Jack Leiter, has seen his stock rise.

Rocker, a 21-year-old junior, has posted a 1.64 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP to go along with 81 strikeouts and 15 walks through his first nine starts and 55 innings pitched this year.

Leiter, meanwhile, turned 21 on Wednesday and is a draft-eligible sophomore. The son and nephew of former big-leaguers, Leiter has produced a miniscule 0.98 ERA and 0.70 WHIP while striking out 94 and walking 22 over nine starts and 55 1/3 innings of work. He threw a no-hitter against South Carolina on March 20.

The pair of Commodores are undoubtedly the top amateur pitching prospects in the country, but the two hurlers have seen their draft projections shift in recent weeks.

On Tuesday, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo ran through a 20-pick mock draft on the latest installment of the Pipeline Podcast, and the two will publish a list of their top 150 draft prospects later this week.

Alternating between picks, Callis had the Pirates taking Leiter with the top overall pick, writing, “It feels like a four-man race to go No. 1 right now, but give me the guy who’s dominating the Southeastern Conference and can pitch off his fastball like few can.”

After high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer were taken off the board by the Rangers and Tigers at picks Nos. 2 and 3, it was Mayo’s turn to pick for the Red Sox at No. 4. He went with Rocker.

“No way I was going to let Rocker go further than this,” Mayo wrote while explaining his pick, “not with that ridiculous fastball-slider combination that comes from his intimidating 6-foot-5 frame.”

Per his MLB Pipeline scouting report, Rocker “is a physical right-hander who can overpower hitters with his fastball and slider. He usually operates at 93-96 mph with his heater, which can reach 99 and features some run and sink but also can get flat at times. He notched all 19 of his whiffs in his no-hitter with his slider, a mid-80s beast with power and depth that grades as plus-plus at its best. 

“Rocker hasn’t used his changeup much, and while his third offering has average potential and some sink, it gets too firm at times. He throws strikes but has just average command, and he’ll need more finesse for days when he doesn’t have his top-notch stuff. He has the makings of a frontline starter but isn’t a finished product and scouts would like to see him dominate more consistently this spring.”

Because the Red Sox will be picking so early in this year’s draft, the club has been able to hone in on a select group of prospects they may be interested in drafting “and scout those players really, really hard,” as amateur scouting director Paul Toboni told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier in March.

Rocker and Leiter are surely two of the players the Sox have been monitoring closely this spring, and area scout Danny Watkins — who covers Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee for the team — recently provided some insight into what makes each of them so intriguing.

“Both of those guys are phenomenal talents,” Watkins explained last month on Podding the Red Sox: A BloggingtheRedSox.com Podcast. “[They] have many differences, but they’re so similar in some ways as well. We’re sitting there at No. 4 in this year’s draft and the thought of having one of them available at 4 is pretty nice.”

At the moment, the Red Sox taking either one of Rocker or Leiter at No. 4 would be pretty nice. But, as MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith notes, the 2021 Draft is not slated to begin until July 11, so there is still plenty of time for rankings and projections to change between now and then.

(Picture of Kumar Rocker: Peter Aiken/Getty Images)

Could Red Sox take enticing catching prospect Henry Davis with No. 4 pick in 2021 MLB Draft?

The 2021 MLB first-year player draft is set to begin in just under three months. In case you haven’t heard, the Red Sox will be making their top selection in the draft with the fourth overall pick after finishing with the fourth-worst record in baseball last season.

In his latest 2021 draft prospect rankings, The Athletic’s Keith Law listed University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis as his No. 4 draft-eligible prospect.

“Davis has mashed all year, with huge power and a patient eye, and he’s got a plus arm and enough receiving skills to stay behind the plate,” Law wrote earlier Thursday. “Joey Bart went second overall with less bat and more glove; I don’t think it’s a stretch to think Davis could be the first college position player taken.”

Davis, 21, is listed at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds. Through the Cardinals’ first 30 games of the season, the third-year sophomore is slashing an impressive .389/.514/.676 with eight home runs, 32 RBI, and an ACC-leading nine stolen bases. He has also thrown out 11 of the 20 baserunners who have attempted to steal against him.

In the history of the first-year player draft — which dates back to 1965 — the Red Sox have taken a catcher in the first round on just four separate occasions, most recently selecting Blake Swihart out of Cleveland High School (Rio Rancho, NM) with the 26th overall pick (compensation pick from the Rangers for Adrian Beltre) in 2011.

The last catcher who played his college baseball at Louisville to be selected in the first round of an amateur draft was the Dodgers’ Will Smith, whom Los Angeles took with the 32nd overall pick in 2016.

Since then, Smith has risen through the prospect ranks and has emerged as one of the top young catchers in the National League, if not all of baseball.

Coming into play on Thursday, the 26-year-old is slashing .261/.438/.652 with two home runs and four RBI through his first eight games of the 2021 campaign.

This is not to say that Davis should be compared to Smith at the moment. Both backstops may be right-handed hitters who attended the same school, but one is already establishing himself as an everyday big-leaguer while the other has yet to go pro.

That said, it is worth mentioning that the last University of Louisville catcher to be selected in the first round of the draft turned out to be someone with plenty of potential in the form of Smith.

As for how Davis — a native of Bedford, N.Y. who played for the Cape League’s Bourne Braves in 2019 — is viewed in the eyes of scouts, his MLB Pipeline scouting report goes as follows:

“Davis’ standout tool is his plus-plus arm strength, and he erased 34 percent of basestealers in his first two college seasons while also displaying quick footwork and good throwing accuracy. His receiving still needs a lot of work because it lacks consistency and he sometimes struggles to handle quality stuff, as evidenced by six passed balls in just 13 starts last spring. Though he has below-average speed and conceivably could try an outfield corner, his value comes from staying behind the plate, so he’ll have to improve. 

“While he doesn’t have a pretty right-handed swing, Davis makes it work at the plate and has a higher offensive ceiling than most catchers. He manages the strike zone well and makes repeated hard contact, even if his stroke lengthens and he gets a bit pull-happy at times. His strength and controlled aggression could produce 20 homers per season.”

Whoever the Red Sox take — whether it be Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, or someone else — with their top selection in this summer’s draft, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, amateur scouting director Paul Toboni and Co. will have approximately $6.64 million in recommended slot value to spend on the No. 4 pick.

On a somewhat related note, The Baseball Prospect Journal’s Dan Zielinski III wrote back in January that during the offseason, Davis caught bullpens for Red Sox relievers Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino.

(Picture of Henry Davis: Louisville Athletics)