MLB Trade Rumors released their annual arbitration salary projections for the 2021 season earlier Thursday.
Unlike past years, projecting arbitration salaries for 2021 has become even more confounding than usual due to the financial circumstances the pandemic-induced, 60-game 2020 Major League Baseball season created for its clubs.
With that in mind, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has put together three different projection models for this exercise in salary arbitration. The first of these three models directly uses statistics from the 2020 season, while the second model “extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals,” and the third, which only applies to non-first-time arbitration eligible players, gives players 37% of the raise they would have received if the 2020 season was 162 games long. That being the case because 60 divided by 162 is equal to 37%.
It is somewhat confusing, but here is how those projections would apply to the nine members of the Red Sox who are currently eligible for salary arbitration this winter, again courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.
| Player | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |
| Matt Barnes | $3.7MM | $5.7MM | $4.1MM |
| Ryan Brasier | $1.00MM | $1.6MM | $1.0MM |
| Austin Brice | $700K | $900K | $700K |
| Rafael Devers | $3.4MM | $6.3MM | $3.4MM |
| Zack Godley | $800K | $1.1MM | $800K |
| Jose Peraza | $2.9MM | $3.2MM | $3.0MM |
| Kevin Plawecki | $1.6MM | $2.0MM | $1.3MM |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | $8.3MM | $8.3MM | $8.3MM |
| Ryan Weber | $900K | $1.5M | $900K |
Among these nine players, Matt Barnes and Eduardo Rodriguez are both entering their final seasons of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency for the first time next November.
Other names listed above, such as Zack Godley and Jose Peraza, could very well be non-tendered by Boston by December 2, which would make them free agents.
Even if a record number of non-tenders are expected between now and early December, this projection model is certainly still helpful. And if we take the projected salaries of the players listed above and use the third and most-likeliest model to be used in this scenario, the total amount of arbitration salaries would add up to approximately $23.5 million.
Take that total and add it to the salaries of players who are under contract or have options for 2021, which would be approximately $155 million, and you arrive at the Sox’ projected payroll for next season, $178.5 million as noted by @RedSoxPayroll.
Of course, this does not take into consideration any players the Red Sox could add over the course of what is sure to be another busy winter for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and Co, so that projected payroll number is likely to change relatively soon.
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I hope this piece was insightful as Major League Baseball prepares to embark on an offseason unlike any before in recent memory. Should be intriguing to monitor to say the least.
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