Tag: free agency

Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi reject Red Sox’ qualifying offers

Last Thursday, the Red Sox extended qualifying offers to right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. They learned on Tuesday that both free agents rejected the one-year, $19.65 million deal to return to Boston for the 2023 season.

Bogaerts’ decision is hardly a surprising one. The 30-year-old infielder has earned $20 million in each of the last three seasons and would therefore be taking a pay cut if he were to accept the qualifying offer after opting out of his contract last week. He is instead expected to receive a long-term deal that exceeds $30 million in average annual value at some point this winter.

Knowing that he was going to reject it, the Red Sox still issued Bogaerts a qualifying offer anyway. If the Boras Corp. client signs elsewhere in free agency, Boston would receive a compensatory pick following the fourth round of next year’s draft.

The same applies to Eovaldi, who could have gone either way with his decision. A $19.65 million salary in 2023 would have represented a 15.6 percent raise from the $17 million the 32-year-old hurler earned in 2022.

Eovaldi posted a 3.87 ERA and 4.30 FIP with 103 strikeouts to 20 walks in 20 starts (109 1/3 innings) for the Red Sox this past season. He was sidelined from June 9-July 15 with low back inflammation and from August 19-September 29 with right shoulder inflammation, which had led to diminished fastball velocity.

Despite those concerns, Eovaldi — who turns 33 in February — elected to hit the open market as opposed to taking the qualifying offer. The ACES client has said in the past that he enjoys pitching for the Red Sox and that his family has loved their time in Boston. The feeling appears to be mutual.

On Sunday, WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported that the Red Sox had made Eovaldi a multi-year contract offer. The fact that Eovaldi is now attached to draft pick compensation may lessen his market, making a reunion between the two sides all the more likely.

With that being said, though, it remains to be seen how close the Red Sox and Eovaldi are to a potential agreement. Starting pitching is always a hot commodity, and another team could jump on a veteran starter like Eovaldi if given the chance to do so.

Fourteen players in total were extended qualifying offers by their respective clubs last week. Of those 14, only Giants outfielder Joc Pederson and Rangers left-hander Martin Perez accepted it.

Besides Bogaerts and Eovaldi, the other 10 players who rejected the qualifying offer were the Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson and Trea Turner, the Mets’ Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom, and Brandon Nimmo, the Cubs’ Wilson Contreras, the Yankees’ Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo, the Giants’ Carlos Rodon, and the Braves’ Dansby Swanson.

It has since been reported that Anderson has agreed to a three-year, $39 million contract with the Angels while Rizzo has agreed to return to the Bronx on a two-year deal that comes with $40 million in guaranteed money.

If chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox were to sign a qualified free agent (outside of Bogaerts and Eovaldi) this winter, they would be forced to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Additionally, they would see their international signing bonus pool be reduced by $1 million after exceeding the $230 million competitive balance tax threshold this year.

(Picture of Xander Bogaerts: Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Red Sox extend qualifying offers to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi

The Red Sox have extended qualifying offers to shortstop Xander Bogaerts and right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. They did not issue the qualifying offer to other eligible free agents such as righty Michael Wacha or designated hitter J.D. Martinez ahead of Thursday’s deadline, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bogaerts and Eovaldi now have the next 10 days to either accept or reject the qualifying offer, which equates to a one-year, $19.65 million deal for 2023. Bogaerts, who opted out of his contract after earning $20 million this past season, is a sure bet to reject the offer since he is going to make more per year in free agency.

Eovaldi, meanwhile, could accept it. The $19.65 million the 32-year-old would receive in 2023 represents a 15.6 percent raise from the $17 million he earned in the final year of the four-year, $68 million contract he signed in December 2018.

According to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, the Red Sox “are believed to be interested in a multi-year agreement” with Eovaldi, who was limited to just 20 starts (109 1/3 innings) this season after requiring two stints on the injured list due to low back and right shoulder inflammation.

If the two sides cannot come to an agreement, Eovaldi could still elect to accept the qualifying offer, re-establish his value, and hit the open market again at the conclusion of his age-33 campaign. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that Eovaldi and his family have loved their time in Boston, so that could play a factor as well.

Either way, the Red Sox have ensured that they will be compensated in the event that Bogaerts or Eovaldi leave in free agency. After spending past the $230 million luxury tax threshold this year, Boston would receive a compensatory draft pick that falls after the fourth round of the 2023 draft if Bogaerts or Eovaldi reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere this winter.

Last year, for instance, the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez. The left-hander ultimately rejected it and went on to sign a four-year, $77 million with the Tigers. As a result, the Sox were awarded with the 79th overall pick in the 2022 draft, which they used on high school outfielder Roman Anthony.

The Red Sox also showed a willingness to sign a qualified free agent last offseason. After inking second baseman Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million deal in March, Boston was forced to give up the 61st overall pick in the draft.

If the Red Sox were to sign a qualified free agent (not including Bogaerts or Eovaldi) this winter, they would have to forfeit their second-and fifth-highest pick in next year’s draft. They would also see their international signing bonus pool be reduced by $1 million as a result of exceeding the competitive balance tax threshold.

In addition to Bogaerts and Eovaldi, 12 other players received qualifying offers on Thursday. The two All-Stars were joined by Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Jacob deGrom, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Wilson Contreras, Chris Bassitt, Anthony Rizzo, Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, and Joc Pederson.

(Picture of Xander Bogaerts: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Red Sox add Enmanuel Valdez to 40-man roster, activate 5 players from 60-day injured list

UPDATE: The Red Sox have officially selected Valdez to the major-league roster. They also activated left-handers James Paxton, Chris Sale, and Josh Taylor, right-hander Tanner Houck, and first baseman/outfielder Franchy Cordero from the 60-day injured list.

The 40-man roster is now at 37 players.

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The Red Sox will add versatile prospect Enmanuel Valdez to their 40-man roster on Thursday, according to MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith. The move prevents Valdez from reaching minor-league free agency.

Valdez, who turns 24 next month, was acquired from the Astros along with outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu in the August trade that sent catcher Christian Vazquez to Houston.

The Astros originally signed Valdez for $450,000 as an international free agent coming out of the Dominican Republic in July 2015, so the San Juan de la Maguna native was eligible to become a minor-league free agent this winter after spending seven years in the minors.

At the time the trade was made, Valdez was batting .327/.410/.606 with 26 doubles, one triple, 21 home runs, 77 RBIs, 66 runs scored, five stolen bases, 45 walks, and 73 strikeouts in 82 games (378 plate appearances) between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land to begin the 2022 season. Upon switching organizations for the first time in his career, the left-handed hitter proceeded to slash .237/.309/.422 with nine doubles, one triple, seven homers, 30 runs driven in, 26 runs scored, three stolen bases, 19 walks, and 48 strikeouts over 44 games (195 plate appearances) for Triple-A Worcester.

Defensively, Valdez saw the majority of his playing time with the WooSox come in the infield. The 5-foot-9, 191-pounder logged 330 innings at second base and 24 innings at third base. He also made three starts in left field and has one career start as a right fielder under his belt.

As things stand now, Valdez is ranked by Baseball America as the No. 16 prospect in Boston’s farm system. The Red Sox will not have to make a corresponding move to add Valdez to their 40-man roster since it currently sits at 31 players.

Valdez has spent his offseason playing for the Toros del Este of the Dominican Winter League. In 12 games with the club, he has gone just 6-for-32 (.188) at the plate with one extra-base hit, two RBIs, three runs scored, one walk, and nine strikeouts.

(Picture of Enmanuel Valdez: Hector Vivas/Getty Images)

Red Sox, Rob Refsnyder avoid arbitration by agreeing to $1.2 million deal for 2023 season

The Red Sox and outfielder Rob Refsnyder have avoided arbitration by agreeing to terms on a one-year deal for the 2023 season, reports Chad Jennings of The Athletic.

MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo relays that Refsnyder will receive $1.2 million in 2023, which represents a 50 percent raise from the $800,000 he earned in 2022. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that the deal includes up to $100,000 in performance bonuses.

Refsnyder originally signed a minor-league pact with the Sox last December. After failing to make Boston’s Opening Day roster out of spring training, the 31-year-old accepted an assignment to Triple-A Worcester. He first made his Red Sox debut as a COVID-related substitute in late April before having his contract selected on a full-time basis in early June.

In 57 total games with the Red Sox, Refsnyder batted .307/.384/.497 with 11 doubles, six home runs, 21 RBIs, 25 runs scored, one stolen base, 15 walks, and 46 strikeouts over 177 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter proved to be particularly effective against left-handed pitching as evidenced by his .359/.411/.594 slash line off southpaws.

Defensively, Refsnyder saw playing time at all three outfield positions this season. The 6-foot, 205-pounder logged 24 2/3 innings in left, 115 innings in center, and 163 innings in right while registering one outfield assist. He also has past experience at every infield position besides shortstop.

“Great season. Great job for us,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said last month in regards to Refsnyder’s performance. “He was really good. Offensively, the versatility, the quality of the at-bats were awesome.”

For as productive as Refsnyder was this year, he also dealt with his fair share of injuries. A right knee sprain sidelined him from July 30 until August 6. He then missed the final four games of the season after being shut down with low back spasms.

“It’s a matter of staying healthy,” said Cora. “That’s the most important thing with him. We’ll set up a good program for him in the offseason and this is a guy we really like. We really like. And he can contribute at this level.”

Refsnyder, who turns 32 in March, provides Cora and Co. with experienced outfield depth. The native South Korean is likely to serve as the club’s fourth outfielder next season, but he could also platoon with a left-handed hitter if needed.

As things stand now, the Red Sox have Refsnyder, Alex Verdugo, and Enrique Hernandez as available outfield options while Jarren Duran is also on the 40-man roster. That being said, the expectation seems to be that Boston will look to bolster its outfield via trade and/or free agency this winter.

With Refsnyder locked in for 2023, the Red Sox still have nine other arbitraiton-eligible players on their roster in Ryan Brasier, Rafael Devers, Nick Pivetta, Franchy Cordero, Alex Verdugo, Christian Arroyo, Josh Taylor, Reese McGuire, and Yu Chang. The club has until next Friday, November 18, to tender these players a contract or they will otherwise become free agents.

(Picture of Rob Refsnyder: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

James Paxton remains with Red Sox after exercising $4 million player option for 2023 season

James Paxton has exercised his $4 million player option for the 2023 season, the Red Sox announced earlier Wednesday afternoon.

This decision comes less than two days after the Red Sox declined Paxton’s two-year, $26 million club option for the 2023-2024 seasons. The veteran left-hander had until Thursday to decide whether he would exercise his player option, which he wound up doing, or decline it and become a free agent.

Paxton, who turned 34 on Sunday, originally signed a one-year, $6 million deal with Boston last December. At that time, the 6-foot-4, 227-pound southpaw was still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent that April. As such, his contract included a uniquely-structured dual option.

The Red Sox were initially optimistic that Paxton would be able to return to action before this season’s All-Star break. But his rehab was slowed by posterior elbow soreness in early May. By August 18, though, Paxton began a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League.

Just two batters into his start against the FCL Rays at JetBlue Park, Paxton was forced to exit with left lat (latissimus dorsi muscle on the back) tightness. That was later diagnosed as a Grade 2 lat tear, which ended Paxton’s season before it really even started.

When healthy, Paxton has proven to be an effective starter at the major-league level. He posted a 3.50 ERA across 131 starts (733 innings) in his first seven seasons with the Mariners and Yankees from 2013-2019. But he has been limited to just 21 2/3 innings of work over the last three seasons and has not thrown a pitch in a big-league contest since last April.

Taking those factors into consideration, it made very little sense for the Red Sox to commit $13 million to Paxton in each of the next two seasons. They instead turned down the Boras Corp. client’s two-year club option, but were hopeful he would pick up his player option.

“We have enjoyed having him here,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. “We signed him with the hope that he’d be pitching postseason baseball for us at Fenway and we’d still love to see it through and see that happen.”

Paxton will now earn a modest $4 million in 2023 as he looks to re-establish his value before hitting the open market again next winter. If healthy, the native British Columbian will join a starting rotation mix in Boston that includes Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock, among others.

(Picture of James Paxton: Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images)

Red Sox’ Eric Hosmer will not exercise opt-out clause in contract; first baseman is set to earn $39 million over next 3 seasons

Eric Hosmer has informed the Red Sox that he will not be opting out of the final three years and $39 million of his contract, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

The Red Sox acquired Hosmer and minor-leaguers Max Ferguson and Corey Rosier from the Padres in exchange for pitching prospect Jay Groome at the trade deadline in early August. As part of the deal, San Diego agreed to take on nearly the entirety of Hosmer’s remaining contract, leaving Boston on the hook for only the major-league minimum.

Hosmer was brought in to provide the Red Sox with stability at first base at a time when they desperately needed it. The 33-year-old recorded just nine hits in his first 12 games with the club before low back inflammation kept him sidelined and on the injured list into October. He returned in time for the final two games of the season.

After batting .272/.336/.391 with 16 doubles, eight home runs, 40 RBIs, 32 runs scored, 33 walks, and 55 strikeouts in 90 games (369 plate appearances) with the Padres to begin the year, Hosmer slashed .244/.320/.311 with three doubles, four RBIs, six runs scored, four walks, and nine strikeouts over 14 games (50 plate appearances) with the Red Sox to close it out.

Given that level of production, Hosmer’s decision to opt in is not necessarily a surprising one. The former first-round draft pick of the Royals spent the first seven years of his major-league career in Kansas City before signing an eight-year, $144 million deal with the Padres in February 2018.

At that time, Hosmer had inked the largest free-agent contract in Padres history. The deal included a full no-trade clause from 2018-2020 and a limited no-trade clause thereafter that prevented the Boras Corp. client from being traded to 10 teams.

The Padres attempted to trade Hosmer to the Nationals as part of the Juan Soto/Josh Bell swap over the summer, but the four-time Gold Glover exercised his no-trade rights. While San Diego ultimately sent Luke Voit to Washington to complete the deal, it also found a trade partner for Hosmer when the Red Sox — who were not on his no-trade list — agreed to acquire the veteran first baseman.

Because he was traded by the Padres, though, Hosmer once again received full no-trade protection. Only this time it would last for the remainder of his contract. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier first reported about this provision last month.

Given that unique caveat, the Red Sox may have difficulty in finding a trade partner for Hosmer since he has the ability to veto a trade to any other team. At the same time, however, there could still be plenty of interest on account of the fact Boston only owes Hosmer $720,000 per year over the next three years.

As things stand now, Hosmer’s fit on the 2023 Red Sox would seem to be an imperfect one. Boston already has a left-handed hitting first baseman on the rise in Triston Casas, so on paper there really would not be much of a need to carry two similar players like that.

With that being said, the Red Sox could elect to retain Hosmer as insurance behind Casas. It also helps that Hosmer played a role in mentoring Casas, a fellow American Heritage High School alum, after the 22-year-old was called up for the first time in September.

Beyond first base, Hosmer could help fill the void left behind by J.D. Martinez at designated hitter since Martinez is expected to sign elsewhere in free agency. He also has past experience in right field, though his last appearance out there came during his age-25 season in 2015.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox have options when it comes to what they will do with Hosmer moving forward. It should be interesting to see what the future has in store for him.

(Picture of Eric Hosmer: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Red Sox decline James Paxton’s two-year club option; left-hander could still pick up $4 million player option for 2023

The Red Sox are declining the two-year, $26 million club option they hold over James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas on Monday. The veteran left-hander now has the ability to trigger a $4 million player option for the 2023 season.

Paxton, who turned 34 on Sunday, originally signed a uniquely-structured one-year, $6 million contract with the Red Sox last November. The deal included a dual option for 2022 since the southpaw was still rehabbing from the Tommy John Surgery he underwent that April.

There was optimism that Paxton would be able to return to action before the All-Star break this season. But his recovery was slowed in early May due to posterior elbow soreness. Approximately three months later, he began a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League.

Just two batters into his August 18 start against the FCL Rays at JetBlue Park, however, Paxton was forced to exit the contest with left lat (latissimus dorsi muscle on the back) tightness. That was later diagnosed as a Grade 2 lat tear, which ended Paxton’s season before it really even started.

Given that Paxton has been limited to just 1 1/3 innings pitched with the Mariners since last April, the Red Sox elected to not lock in the Boras Corp. client for $13 million in each of the next two season.

Paxton now has until Tuesday to decide if he will exercise his $4 million player option for the 2023 campaign. If he declines, the British Columbia native will forgo that sum and become a free agent for the second time in as many winters.

(Picture of James Paxton: Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images)

Red Sox decline Tommy Pham’s option, making outfielder a free agent

The Red Sox have declined their end of Tommy Pham’s $12 million mutual option for the 2023 season, according to The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams. The veteran outfielder will receive a $1.5 million buyout as he heads for free agency.

Pham, 34, was acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league infielder Nick Northcut on August 1. The right-handed hitter initially got off to a promising start with the Red Sox but ended his season in an 0-for-18 slump at the plate.

All told, Pham batted just .234/.298/.374 with 12 doubles, six home runs, 24 RBIs, 32 runs scored, one stolen base, 14 walks, and 67 strikeouts over 53 games (235 plate appearances) with the Sox. He was used exclusively as a left fielder and finished tied for the team lead in outfield assists with eight.

A former 16th-round draft pick of the Cardinals out of Durango High School in 2006, Pham first broke in with St. Louis towards the end of the 2014 season. The Las Vegas-area native then put himself on the map when he finished 11th in National League MVP voting in 2017.

The following July, the Cardinals traded Pham to the Rays. After 1 1/2 years in Tampa Bay, where he got to know current Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, Pham was dealt to the Padres in December 2019. He spent two seasons with San Diego before hitting free agency for the first time last November.

It took until March because of the lockout, but Pham ultimately signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Reds that came with the aforementioned mutual option for 2023. Prior to being traded over the summer, Pham made headlines in late May when he slapped Giants outfielder Joc Pederson across the face during batting practice at Great American Ballpark because of a dispute centered around fantasy football.

Between Cincinnati and Boston, Pham slashed .236/.312/.374 with 23 doubles, one triple, 17 homers, 63 runs driven in, 89 runs scored, eight stolen bases, 56 walks, and 67 strikeouts across 144 total games (622 plate appearances). His 15 outfield assists were the most in all of baseball.

Pham, who turns 35 next March, has expressed interest in returning to the Red Sox as he enjoyed playing in Boston. For their part, the Red Sox could also be interested in a reunion since they are expected to bolster their outfield depth this winter.

With the Pham decision made, the Red Sox still have two more option calls due this week. While Chris Sale has opted in and Xander Bogaerts has opted out, Boston is still waiting on Eric Hosmer, who is expected to opt in. James Paxton, meanwhile has the ability to exercise a $4 million player option for 2023 if his two-year, $26 million club optioned is declined. Those decisions are due by Thursday.

(Picture of Tommy Pham: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Xander Bogaerts officially becomes free agent after opting out of Red Sox contract

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract and is now a free agent, the Major League Baseball Players Association announced earlier Monday morning.

Bogaerts had until Tuesday to decide if he would opt out of the remaining three years and $60 million of the six-year, $120 million extension he originally signed in April 2019. The Boras Corp. client was expected to opt out and the Red Sox will now extend him a $19.65 million qualifying offer within the next three days.

In the same way that he declined to opt in to his deal, Bogaerts is also expected to turn down Boston’s qualifying offer by the November 20 deadline. Since they exceeded the $230 million luxury tax threshold this season, the Red Sox would receive a compensatory 2023 draft pick that falls after the fourth round if Bogaerts were to sign elsewhere this winter.

With that being said, the Red Sox can negotiate exclusively with Bogaerts until Thursday. The right-handed hitting infielder is coming off an impressive 2022 campaign in which he batted .307/.377/.456 with 38 doubles, 15 home runs, 73 RBIs, 84 runs scored, eight stolen bases, 57 walks, and 118 strikeouts over 150 games (557 plate appearances). He finished third in the American League batting race and was named a Gold Glove Award finalist for just the second time in his 10-year career.

On the heels of such a productive season, Bogaerts has put himself in position for a promising payday that would far exceed the $60 million left on his original deal. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman projects that the 30-year-old All-Star net an eight-year, $225 million deal in free agency this offseason. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo adds that Bogaerts could seek a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value.

Either way, Bogaerts has joined a talented free agent class at shortstop that includes the likes of Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. He also joined Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Matt Strahm, and J.D. Martinez as members of the 2022 Red Sox to elect free agency.

Since their season ended last month, the Red Sox have made it clear that they would like to have Bogaerts back in 2023 and beyond. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described re-signing Bogaerts as a top priority during the club’s end-of-season press conference at Fenway Park. They are now on the clock to prove as much.

(Picture of Xander Bogaerts: Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

Barring last-minute extension, Xander Bogaerts will opt out of Red Sox contract; what happens after that?

Depending on when the World Series ends, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts is expected to opt out of the remainder of his contract and become a free agent by next Wednesday at the latest.

Bogaerts initially signed a six-year, $120 million extension to remain with the Sox ahead of his age-26 season in 2019. The deal went into effect in 2020 and afforded the Boras Corp. client the opportunity to opt out after three years if he wanted to test the open market at the conclusion of the 2022 season.

Now 30 years old, Bogaerts has put himself in position for a promising payday this winter that would far exceed the $60 million remaining on his current deal. In 150 games this season, the right-handed hitter batted .307/.377/.456 with 38 doubles, 15 home runs, 73 RBIs, 84 runs scored, eight stolen bases, 57 walks, and 118 strikeouts over 557 plate appearances.

Though the power numbers were down from where they usually are, Bogaerts still finished third in the American League Batting race behind the Twins’ Luis Arraez and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. He also had a stellar year defensively and was named a Gold Glove Award finalist for just the second time in his 10-year career.

Even before Opening Day in April, the Red Sox — knowing full well that Bogaerts was likely to opt out — made it known that they wanted to keep their All-Star shortstop in Boston long-term. Whether it came from manager Alex Cora, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, or president and CEO Sam Kennedy, it seemed as though the club was intent on bringing Bogaerts back for 2023 and beyond.

During the team’s end-of-season press conference at Fenway Park on October 6, Bloom emphasized that extension talks with Bogaerts were the top priority and were “going to start right away.” That same day, Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal reported that Bogaerts had met with Red Sox principal owner John Henry and team chairman Tom Werner several times before heading home to Aruba.

Since then, however, it does not appear that talks between the two sides have gained much traction. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported on Thursday that “barring an 11th-hour extension — which a source familiar with the talks considered unlikely as of last week — Bogaerts will opt out.”

On Friday, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman projected that Bogaerts would net an eight-year, $225 million deal in free agency this offseason. The average annual value on that hypothetical contract comes out to $28.125 million, which represents a 42.5 percent raise from the $20 million he would earn over the next three seasons if he were to opt in.

An eight-year deal would take Bogaerts through his age-37 season. As noted by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, though, Bogaerts could elect to pursue a shorter-term deal that would exceed $30 million in average annual value.

Given that Bogaerts’ is slated to make more than $20 million per year moving forward, he is unlikely to accept the $19.65 million qualifying offer the Red Sox will extend to him within the next seven days. If Bogaerts were to sign elsewhere this winter, Boston would receive a compensatory 2023 draft pick that falls after the fourth round since it exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year.

With all that being said, Bogaerts is slated to be part of a loaded free agent class at shortstop that includes the likes of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson.

(Picture of Xander Bogaerts: Winslow Townson/Getty Images)