Red Sox have 0.8 percent chance to land No. 1 pick in 2023 MLB Draft

The Red Sox did not finish with the worst record in baseball this season, yet they will have a chance to pick first in next year’s amateur draft.

On Monday, Major League Baseball announced that the first-ever draft lottery will take place during next month’s Winter Meetings in San Diego. Thanks to the newly-implemented collective bargaining agreement, the first six picks of the 2023 draft will now be determined via lottery as opposed to the reverse order of the previous year’s standings.

Coming off a 78-84 2022 campaign that saw them fall short of the postseason, the Red Sox would be in line to receive the 14th overall pick in the 2023 draft under the old collective bargaining agreement. They now have the 14th-best odds to obtain the No. 1 pick next July.

Boston will be in the mix with the 17 other non-playoff teams for the top overall selection. The teams with the three worst records in 2022 — the 55-107 Nationals, the 60-102 Athletics, and 62-100 Pirates — have the best chance (16.5) to win the top pick in the lottery.

From there, the Reds (13.2 percent) have the fourth-best, the Royals (10.0 percent) have the fifth-best, the Tigers (7.5 percent) have the sixth-best, the Rangers (5.5 percent) have the seventh-best, the Rockies (3.9 percent) have the eighth-best, the Marlins (2.7 percent) have the ninth-best, the Angels (1.8 percent) have the 10th-best, the Diamondbacks (1.4 percent) have the 11th-best, the Cubs (1.1 percent) have the 12th-best, the Twins (0.9 percent) have the 13th-best, the Red Sox (0.8 percent), have the 14th-best, the White Sox (0.6 percent) have the 15th-best, the Giants (0.5 percent) have the 16th-best, the Orioles (0.4 percent) have the 17th-best, and the Brewers (0.2 percent) possess the 18th-best odds.

In addition to having a 0.8 percent chance to land the top pick, the Red Sox have a 0.9 percent chance to pick second, a 1.0 percent chance to pick third, a 1.2 percent chance to pick fourth, a 1.4 percent chance to pick fifth, and a 1.7 percent chance to pick sixth, according to Tankathon.com.

If Boston’s No. 1 selection falls out of the top six in the lottery, it would pick 14th overall. Tankathon.com relays that the Sox have a 78.9 percent chance to pick 14th, a 13.6 percent chance to pick 15th, and a 0.6 percent chance to pick 16th.

While it is extremely unlikely the Red Sox come away with the top overall pick (something that has never happened in franchise history) on December 6, they have been able to use the first round of past drafts to strengthen their improving farm system.

Under chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and vice president of player development and amateur scouting Toboni, Boston has taken infielders Mikey Romero, Marcelo Mayer, and Nick Yorke with its first pick in each of the last three drafts. All three Californians currently sit within the top 12 of Baseball America’s Red Sox prospects rankings.

(Picture of Mikey Romero: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Author: Brendan Campbell

Blogging about the Boston Red Sox since April '17. Also support Tottenham Hotspur.

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