Red Sox Prospect Jay Groome and the 2020 Rule 5 Draft

Jay Groome is one of 49 Red Sox minor-leaguers who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter. That means that he will have to be added to Boston’s 40-man roster before the November deadline in order to avoid being eligible for said draft.

On upside alone, the former 2016 first-round pick will presumably make the cut, and will likely be part of the Sox’ 30-man taxi squad in Pawtucket for the upcoming, truncated 2020 season.

That being said, with it looking more and more likely that there won’t be any organized minor-league baseball at all this year, Groome loses the opportunity to further develop coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign.

Recovering from Tommy John surgery underwent in May 2018, the New Jersey native was not able to see any in-game action until last August, where he made a total of three starts between the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and short-season Lowell Spinners before the minor-league season came to a close.

A small sample size, the left-hander allowed one run on five hits and one walk to go along with six strikeouts over four innings of work in those three outings.

Since signing with the Sox out of Barnegat High School in July 2016, Groome has made just 20 starts and pitched 66 innings between three minor-league levels over that time period.

As mentioned earlier, injuries have played a factor in that. Not only did Groome undergo Tommy John surgery in 2018, but before that, he missed time in 2017 due to a strained lat muscle and forearm strain.

Before Major League Baseball shut down spring training in March due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it seemed as though Groome was looking forward to the full season of work ahead of him at the time.

He told WEEI’s Rob Bradford earlier in the year, “I have my family pushing me because they know I’m back where I need to be. I’m healthy. They just want to see me finally start up a full season again. It has been a long time.”

Things have obviously changed since then, though, and it would appear that the only in-game action the 21-year-old will see this year will be of the intra-squad variety.

Clubs across MLB have until 4 PM eastern time on Sunday to submit their 60-man player pools, half of which will make up the active roster to begin the season while the other half will serve as a taxi squad that will essentially remain on standby.

Many teams have already announced that a number of their top prospects will make up their respective taxi squads.

Although no official announcement has come from the Red Sox yet, expect Groome, Boston’s seventh-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, to be one of the club’s touted youngsters to make the cut.

Jeter Downs, Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Bryan Mata, Thad Ward, and Marcus Wilson are among the other Sox prospects who could also make up the club’s taxi squad.

Red Sox Prospects: The Ultimate Top 30 Rankings for 2020

You ever visit those fantasy sports sites like ESPN or FantasyPros and notice how they compile their rankings into one elaborate chart that curates information from multiple sources/analysts? Well, I decided to do that with the top 30 prospects in the Red Sox farm system.

There might not even be any minor-league baseball played this year due to the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, but I thought it would nonetheless be interesting to compare how different sites–MLB Pipeline, SoxProspects, and FanGraphs–view the top talent that Boston has to offer at the minor-league level.

The following Red Sox prospects were ranked by one of the aforementioned three sites, but not the other two: SS Ceddanne Rafaela, 1B Pedro Castellanos, OF Bryan Gonzalez, OF Eduardo Lopez, OF Juan Chacon, and C Naysbel Marcano.

Prospects Danny Diaz and Tyler Esplin, meanwhile, were ranked by two of the aforementioned sites and left off by the other. They made the list.

Prospect MLB Pipeline SoxProspects FanGraphs Average
IF Jeter Downs 1 2 1 1.33
1B/3B Triston Casas 2 1 2 1.67
RHP Bryan Mata 4 3 3 3.33
1B/3B Bobby Dalbec 3 6 4 4.33
OF Gilberto Jimenez 5 5 6 5.33
RHP Noah Song 6 9 5 6.67
OF Jarren Duran 8 7 10 8.33
LHP Jay Groome 7 4 15 8.67
RHP Tanner Houck 10 8 9 9
RHP Thad Ward 9 11 11 10.33
SS Matthew Lugo 11 15 7 11
OF Nick Decker 12 17 14 14.33
IF Cameron Cannon 17 18 8 14.33
IF C.J. Chatham 13 10 21 14.67
C/IF Connor Wong 16 12 16 14.67
RHP Brayan Bello 18 19 12 16.33
IF Brainer Bonaci 14 20 18 17.33
RHP Chih-Jung Liu 15 27 13 18.33
SS Antoni Flores 19 21 17 19
LHP Chris Murphy 20 16 23 19.67
RHP Ryan Zeferjahn 22 13 29 21.33
3B Brandon Howlett 23 25 20 22.67
OF Marcus Wilson 21 23 25 23
RHP Aldo Ramirez 27 14 31 24
IF Jonathan Arauz 30 28 22 26.67
RHP Durbin Feltman 25 29 28 27.33
IF Danny Diaz 24 32 NR 28
RHP Andrew Politi 26 37 27 30
LHP Yoan Aybar 29 31 34 31.33
OF Tyler Esplin 28 60 NR 44

So, to boil it all down, here’s a more simplified top-30 list based off the math you see in the chart above.

  1. IF Jeter Downs
  2. 1B/3B Triston Casas
  3. RHP Bryan Mata
  4. 1B/3B Bobby Dalbec
  5. OF Gilberto Jimenez
  6. RHP Noah Song
  7. OF Jarren Duran
  8. LHP Jay Groome
  9. RHP Tanner Houck
  10. RHP Thad Ward
  11. SS Matthew Lugo
  12. OF Nick Decker
  13. IF Cameron Cannon
  14. IF C.J. Chatham
  15. C/IF Connor Wong
  16. RHP Brayan Bello
  17. IF Brainer Bonaci
  18. RHP Chih-Jung Liu
  19. SS Antoni Flores
  20. LHP Chris Murphy
  21. RHP Ryan Zeferjahn
  22. 3B Brandon Howlett
  23. OF Marcus Wilson
  24. RHP Aldo Ramirez
  25. IF Jonathan Arauz
  26. RHP Durbin Feltman
  27. IF Danny Diaz
  28. RHP Andrew Politi
  29. LHP Yoan Aybar
  30. OF Tyler Esplin

In total, 26 of the above 30 players were either drafted or signed by the Red Sox, while three were traded for, and one was acquired in the Rule 5 Draft.

For more in-depth analysis, information, and scouting reports on these prospects and even more players, check out one of the sites I used for this piece in SoxProspects.com. Those guys do a great job in covering the Red Sox farm system. You can even read more abut them and how they got their start here.