Dalton Rogers was the first pitcher the Red Sox took in the 2022 amateur draft. How did the Southern Mississippi product fare in his first full professional season last year?
Selected with the 99th overall pick and signed for $447,500 that July , Rogers debuted in the rookie-level Florida Complex League but made just two relief appearances before the 2022 season drew to a close. The left-hander then broke camp with Low-A Salem last spring.
Making his full-season debut as a 22-year-old in the Carolina League, Rogers got his 2023 campaign off to an impressive starts. In six starts for the Red Sox out of the gate, he posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.99 FIP with 38 strikeouts to 13 walks over 21 2/3 innings of work in which he held opposing hitters to a .139 batting average against.
Before the calendar flipped from May to June, Rogers received a promotion to High-A Greenville. The lefty carried with him a 2.75 ERA through his first four outings with the Drive. After tossing six no-hit innings and recording the first double-digit strikeout game of his career on June 14, however, he experienced some struggles that really plagued him for the rest of the season.
From June 21 through the end of the regular season, Rogers went 1-6 with a 6.51 ERA and 75 strikeouts to 35 walks over 13 starts (55 1/3 innings). Despite those difficulties, Rogers got the start for Greenville in the second and final game of the South Atlantic League Championship Series against the Hudson Valley Renegades at Fluor Field on September 19. He went the first three innings, allowing just one run on two hits, two walks, and five strikeouts as the Drive went on to take home their second SAL title in franchise history.
All told, Rogers produced a 5.52 ERA (but a much more respectable 4.23 FIP) to go along with 102 punchouts and 48 walks in 17 starts (75 innings) for Greenville last season. Among those in the South Atlantic League who also eclipsed the 70-inning threshold in 2023, Rogers ranked fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (12.24), sixth in strikeout rate (30.9 percent), 16th in batting average against (.238), 21st in groundball rate (42.3 percent), 20th in swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent), 21st in FIP, and 14th in xFIP (4.19), per FanGraphs.
Between Salem and Greenville, Rogers went 2-7 with a 4.84 ERA (3.73 FIP) and 140 strikeouts t0 61 walks across 23 total starts spanning 96 2/3 innings pitched. He was one of 11 Red Sox minor-leaguers to reach the century mark in strikeouts last season and was named an MiLB.com organizational All-Star alongside the likes of right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez and reliever Luis Guerrero.
Rogers, who turned 23 last month, is currently regarded by SoxProspects.com as the No. 34 prospect in Boston’s farm system, which ranks second among lefties in the organization behind only Brandon Walter. The Mississippi native stands at 5-foot-11 and 172 pounds and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. As noted in his SoxProspects.com scouting report, he operates with a three-pitch mix that consists of a 91-94 mph fastball that tops out at 96 mph, an 81-83 mph changeup, and a 79-82 mph slider that features horizontal break.
As he prepares for his third pro season, which will likely begin in Greenville, it remains to be seen if Rogers’ future lies in being used as a starter or reliever. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who also compiles the Red Sox’ organizational rankings for Baseball America, wrote last February that the club “will develop Rogers as a starter, hoping that his control will improve to the point where his tantalizing mix can play to its fullest potential. If everything coalesces, he has the pitches to emerge as a No. 4 starter. If control remains elusive, Rogers could become a middle-innings lefty with high strikeout and walk rates.”
Either way, Rogers could benefit from the new pitching infrastructure that Red Sox chief baseball officer has been putting in place since his hiring. With that, it would not too surprising if Rogers continues to put up big strikeout numbers while improving in other areas and ultimately makes his way to Double-A Portland at some point in 2024.
(Picture of Dalton Rogers: Gwinn Davis/Greenville Drive)
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