Which pitching prospect within the Red Sox organization possesses the best control? According to one prominent publication, it’s Hunter Dobbins.
The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who compiles the Red Sox’ organizational rankings for Baseball America, recently identified Dobbins as having the best control of any Boston pitching prospect heading into 2024.
Dobbins ended the 2023 season ranked by Baseball America as the No. 30 prospect (ninth among pitchers) in Boston’s farm system after going 9-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 122 strikeouts to 31 walks in 20 appearances (19 starts) spanning 112 2/3 innings between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland.
Though his season debut was delayed until early May, Dobbins fared quite well with Greenville. The 24-year-old right-hander forged a respectable 2.63 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 44 strikeouts to just five walks in seven starts (41 innings) for the Drive. He held opposing hitters to a .222 batting average against during that stretch and was then rewarded with a promotion to Portland in late June.
Facing more advanced competition in the Eastern League, Dobbins initially got off a to a rough start, struggling to a 5.70 ERA in his first seven outings (36 1/3 innings) for the Sea Dogs before settling in some as the calendar flipped from August to September. Altogether, the righty produced a 4.27 ERA (3.76 FIP) with 78 strikeouts to 26 walks in 13 appearances (12 starts, 71 2/3 innings) for Portland to close out the 2023 campaign.
One of eight Red Sox minor-leaguers to eclipse the century mark in total innings pitched this year, Dobbins led that group in walks per nine innings (2.48), walk rate (6.6 percent), and FIP (3.30). He also ranked second in xFIP (3.69) and WHIP (1.19), third in ERA, ground-ball rate (44.1 percent) and swinging-strike rate (14.9 percent), fourth in line-drive rate (19.1 percent), and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings (9.75), strikeout rate (26.1 percent), and batting average against (.240), per FanGraphs.
Dobbins was originally selected by Boston in the eighth round of the 2021 amateur draft out of Texas Tech. At the time he signed with the club for $197,500, though, the former Red Raider was recovering from Tommy John surgery that came as a result of a UCL injury suffered during a preseason scrimmage earlier that spring. As such, he did not make his professional debut until last June with Low-A Salem, where he pitched to a 5.22 ERA over 17 starts and 69 innings of work.
Now standing at 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Dobbins throws from a high-three-quarters arm slot and — according to his SoxProspects.com scouting report — operates with a four-pitch mix that consists of a 92-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 mph, an 84-90 mph slider that “improved considerably” in 2023, an 81-85 mph splitter that evolved from a previously-used changeup, and a 76-82 mph curveball that features long, 12-to-6 break.
Dobbins, who does not turn 24 until next August, is projected to return to Portland’s rotation for the start of the 2024 season. Assuming he remains in the organization through the winter, the Lone Star State native could be a beneficiary of the Red Sox implementing new strategies when it comes to developing pitching under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
(Picture of Hunter Dobbins: Kelly O’Connor/sittingstill.smugmug.com)
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