Red Sox pitching prospects Matt Duffy, Cole Tolbert slated to undergo Tommy John surgery

It appears as though the 2025 season is already over for a pair of intriguing Red Sox pitching prospects.

As was first reported by Andrew Parker of Beyond the Monster, right-handers Matt Duffy and Cole Tolbert have been diagnosed with UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) tears in their pitching elbows. While Duffy’s was described as a full tear, both hurlers are scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery in Arlington, Texas on March 5.

Duffy, 23, was Boston’s fourth-round selection in the 2023 draft out of Canisius University in Buffalo, N.Y. The Ontario native forwent his commitment to transfer to South Carolina for his senior year by signing with the club for an under-slot $350,000 that July. He then spent the entirety of his first full professional season at Low-A Salem in 2024, compiling a 2.83 ERA (3.58 FIP) with exactly 100 strikeouts to 27 walks over 22 appearances (21 starts) and a staff-leading 98 2/3 innings in which opposing hitters batted .223 against him. That includes a sparkling 1.05 ERA (2.25 ERA) in his final nine outings (43 innings) after the calendar flipped from June to July.

Tolbert, meanwhile, was selected by the Red Sox in the 18th round of last summer’s draft out of Ole Miss. In a similar fashion to Duffy, the 22-year-old had been committed to transfer to Troy University for his senior season but instead signed with Boston for an under-slot $50,000 in July. He made his professional debut shortly thereafter and closed the 2024 campaign by posting a 5.56 ERA (3.23 FIP) with 14 strikeouts to six walks in five appearances (three starts) spanning 11 1/3 innings for Salem. Opponents batted .268 against him.

Neither Duffy (who turns 24 in October) nor Tolbert (who turns 23 in December) are currently ranked among Boston’s top 60 prospects by SoxProspects.com. The former was projected by the site to make the jump to High-A Greenville for the start of the upcoming season while the latter was slated to return to Salem. They will now miss all of 2025 and likely part of 2026 depending on the nature of their respective procedures.

(Picture of Matt Duffy: Gary Streiffer/Flickr)

Red Sox pitching prospect Matt Duffy strikes out 10 in final start of season for Low-A Salem

Red Sox pitching prospect Matt Duffy was excellent in his final start of the season for Low-A Salem last Thursday night.

Going up against the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers at Carillion Clinic Field, Duffy scattered four hits and zero walks while striking out a career-high 10 over five scoreless innings. The 22-year-old right-hander finished with 82 pitches (58 strikes), eliciting 12 swings-and-misses.

In 22 appearances (21 starts) for Salem this season, Duffy posted a 2.83 ERA and 3.58 FIP with exactly 100 strikeouts to 27 walks over a staff-leading 98 2/3 innings. That includes a 1.05 ERA (2.25 FIP) with 47 strikeouts to eight walks in his last nine outings (43 innings) after the calendar flipped from June to July.

Among the 23 pitchers who threw at least 90 innings in the Carolina League this year, Duffy ranked second in ERA, fifth in WHIP (1.09), seventh in strikeout rate (24.9 percent) and xFIP (3.36), eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (9.12), walks per nine innings (2.46), walk rate (6.7 percent), and batting average against (.223), and 10th in FIP, per FanGraphs.

Duffy, who turns 23 next month, was selected by the Red Sox in the fourth round (115th overall) of the 2023 draft out of Canisius University in Buffalo, N.Y. The Ontario, Canada native had committed to transfer to South Carolina for his senior season but opted to sign with Boston for $350,000 instead. He made his professional debut in the rookie-level Florida Complex League before first arriving in Salem last August.

Standing at 6-foot-2 and around 215 pounds, Duffy throws from a three-quarters arm slot and gets solid extension from his deceptive delivery. The righty primarily operates with a three-pitch mix that consists of a fastball, changeup, and sweeping slider. As noted by MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith, Duffy’s fastball velocity increased throughout the season. He topped out at 95.3 mph with his heater against Kannapolis.

“My entire life I’ve been the guy who doesn’t throw the hardest but I throw strikes,” Duffy told Smith last month. “I’ve never really had a problem with not throwing strikes.”

Despite putting together an encouraging first full season in pro ball, Duffy is not currently ranked by publications such as SoxProspects.com as one of the top pitching prospects in Boston’s farm system. He is, however, projected to make the jump to High-A Greenville in 2025.

(Picture of Matt Duffy: Gary Streiffer/Flickr)

Red Sox select Canisius right-hander Matt Duffy with fourth-round pick in 2023 MLB Draft

The Red Sox have taken their first pitcher in the 2023 MLB Draft, selecting Canisius University (Buffalo, N.Y.) right-hander Matt Duffy with their fourth-round pick at No. 115 overall.

Duffy, 21, was regarded by Baseball America as the No. 474 prospect in this year’s draft class. The Ontario, Canada native is coming off a 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.13 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 119 strikeouts to 28 walks in 14 starts (80 2/3 innings) for Canisius, earning MAAC Pitcher of the Year honors as a result. The junior also made three starts for the Bourne Braves of the Cape Cod Baseball League earlier this summer and struck out 16 of the 53 batters he faced over 14 1/3 innings of work.

Listed at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, Duffy “consistently filled the strike zone” throughout his college career, per his Baseball America scouting report. His pitch mix consists of a below-average fastball that sits between 88-92 mph and tops out at 94 mph, a 78-81 mph changeup, and a slider that sits in the mid-to-upper 70s.

Duffy took to Instagram on Friday to announce that he would be transferring to South Carolina for his senior season next spring. It remains to be seen if that will impact his chances of turning professional and signing with the Red Sox, though the recommended slot value for the 115th overall pick in this year’s draft is $580,200.

Given that Baseball America projected Duffy as a later-round pick, Boston may be able to sign the righty to an under-slot deal prior to the July 25 deadline and save some money for other picks.

(Picture of Matt Duffy: Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)