At this time last year, Red Sox pitching prospect Juan Valera appeared primed to take another step forward in 2025.
Valera, originally signed for $45,000 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in April 2023, put himself on the map in his stateside debut two seasons ago. The young right-hander forged a 1.99 ERA with 68 strikeouts to 28 walks in 18 outings (16 starts) spanning 63 1/3 innings between the rookie-level Florida Complex League and Low-A Salem. He held opposing hitters to a .125 batting average en route to being named an FCL All-Star and SoxProspects.com’s Pitcher of the Year.
Looking to build off significant momentum gained in 2024, Valera came into camp last spring stronger on both a physical and mental level, according to Red Sox senior director of player development Brian Abraham. Valera stood out by displaying an uptick in velocity and a sharper command of his secondaries on the backfields in Fort Myers. As a result, he was rewarded with an aggressive season-opening assignment to High-A Greenville.
When Greenville’s season began in early April, Valera was still a month-plus out from his 19th birthday, making him one of the youngest players at the High-A level. With just 23 career innings above rookie ball to that point, Valera unsurprisingly got off to a shaky start. In his first eight starts for the Drive, the righty posted a 5.40 ERA with 37 strikeouts to nine walks over 33 1/3 innings in which opponents batted .284 against him.
After turning 19 on May 18 and surrendering three runs (two earned) in 3 1/3 frames against Bowling Green a week later, Valera was placed on the injured list due to elbow soreness on May 27 and was not activated until late August. He then made two more (short) starts for Greenville before the season ended, allowing three earned runs on five hits, one walk, and nine strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings of work.
Altogether, Valera pitched to a 5.45 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 46 strikeouts to 10 walks in 10 starts (38 innings) for Greenville in 2025. Opponents batted .281 against him overall. That includes a .341 average against left-handed hitters and a .206 average against right-handed hitters.
Among 156 minor leaguers who threw at least 35 innings in the hitter-friendly South Atlantic League last year, Valera ranked 19th in xFIP (3.00), 23rd in walk rate (6%), 28th in walks per nine innings (2.37), 40th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.89), 52nd in strikeout rate (27.5%), and 62nd in swinging-strike rate (13.2%), per FanGraphs.
Both Baseball America and SoxProspects.com currently rank Valera as Boston’s No. 5 prospect; MLB Pipeline has him slightly lower at No. 12. Earlier this month, SoxProspects.com’s director of scouting Ian Cundall (writing for Baseball America) identified Valera as a potential breakout pitching prospect within the Red Sox system based on his under-the-hood numbers.
“Valera’s four-pitch mix brings a combination of power and surprising control, as he has three pitches with a strike rate over 65% and an in-zone rate over 50%,” Cundall wrote of the 6-foot-3, 205-pound hurler. “He can run his fastball up to 100 mph, but the pitch plays below its velocity due to its cut-over-ride shape. Even still, the power on it makes it tough on hitters, and it had a slightly above-average whiff rate in 2025.
“Valera’s feel for spin is advanced for his age,” added Cundall. “While his most-used secondary is his slider, his best is his sweeper. His sweeper is one of the hardest in the minors, averaging just under 87 mph with a spin rate over 2,700 rpm. It had a 69% strike rate and 43% whiff rate in 2025, making for one of the best combinations of those two stats in all of MiLB for sweepers as hard as his.”
Barring a trade or other surprise, Valera is likely to return to Greenville out of spring training for the start of his age-20 season. If he can stay healthy and further refine his arsenal, it would not be surprising to see him move up to Double-A Portland — and perhaps even Triple-A Worcester — before the 2026 campaign draws to a close.
(Picture of Juan Valera: Kelly O’Connor/sittingstill.smugmug.com)
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