How did Red Sox pitching prospect Connelly Early fare in first full pro season?

Connelly Early was the lone member of the Red Sox’ 2023 draft class to pitch more than 100 innings this season.

Early, Boston’s fifth-round pick in last year’s draft out of the University of Virginia, made 23 starts between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland in 2024. The 22-year-old left-hander posted a 3.99 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 138 strikeouts to 39 walks over 103 2/3 innings. Opponents batted just .214 against him as he held right-handed hitters to a .221 average and left-handed hitters to a .195 average.

Selected 151st overall, Early signed with the Red Sox for $408,500 last July and marked his professional debut by making one start for Low-A Salem before the 2023 campaign ended. The Virginia native then broke camp with Greenville this spring and pitched to 3.72 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 90 strikeouts to 24 walks in 15 starts (67 2/3 innings) for the Drive.

Following the MLB All-Star break, Early received a promotion to Portland in late July. To close out his first full professional season, the lefty produced a 4.50 ERA (but a much more encouraging 2.66 FIP) with 48 strikeouts to 14 walks in eight starts (36 innings) for the Sea Dogs. It is worth noting that he yielded six unearned runs in his final outing of the year on September 12.

Among the 163 pitchers who threw at least 35 innings in the Eastern League this season, Early ranked second in groundball rate (58.9 percent), sixth in FIP, seventh in swinging-strike rate (16.4 percent), eighth in xFIP (2.95), 13th in strikeouts per nine innings (12.0), 16th in strikeout rate (30.6 percent), 71st in batting average against (.225), and 81st in walk rate (9.6 percent), per FanGraphs.

Standing at 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, Early throws from a three-quarters arm slot and incorporates a medium-high leg kick into his delivery. The athletic southpaw operates with a four-pitch mix that consists of a 91-93 mph fastball that tops out at 95-96 mph, an 80-82 mph whiff-inducing changeup, a 79-81 mph curveball, and a cutter-slider hybrid that sits between 87-88 mph.

Lauded for his pitchability, Early is currently regarded by Baseball America as the No. 28 prospect in Boston’s farm system, which ranks 13th among pitchers in the organization. As far as other publications are concerned, MLB Pipeline has him ranked 24th on its Top 30 Red Sox prospects list while SoxProspects.com has him at No. 25.

“It’s been really cool to watch his continued development this year,” Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (via text) last month. “He has been the epitome of what we have been pushing as a player development group and has succeeded on reaching every goal we have put in front of him.”

Assuming he remains in the organization through the winter, Early — who turns 23 in April — is projected by SoxProspects.com to return to Portland for the start of the 2025 minor-league season. He explained some of the challenges of going up against hitters at the Double-A level when speaking with MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith earlier this summer.

“They’re kind of like sitting on one of your pitches,” Early said. “Obviously they do a very good job of just going in-depth on scouting reports on the pitchers they are going to face. So it’s still making your pitches, executing them as well as you can. Don’t give the hitter too much credit but they are up there trying to find a spot where you’re going to make a mistake and you’ve just gotta keep them off balance.”

(Picture of Connelly Early: Kelly O’Connor/sittingstill.smugmug.com)

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Author: Brendan Campbell

Blogging about the Boston Red Sox since April '17. Also support Tottenham Hotspur.

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